One thing is very clear to me, right now the market is completely split. Everyone is uncertain, nobody wants to take risk, and the dominant view is that things still need to go lower and the war will drag on much longer.

But under the surface, our data and the market data is telling a different story. Positioning is shifting to risk, large players are getting long, and we’re hitting a cluster of major time windows while the market is due for a big move.

Most people are going to miss this because they’re waiting for clarity that won’t come until price is much higher. But when the market refuses to go lower on bad news and nobody is positioned for upside, that’s usually the tell. This is the type of environment where major moves start, and we are seeing that behavior reflected in the price action. It’s a classic instance of watching what is doing well versus what you think should be doing well.

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It challenges many of the most widely accepted macro assumptions of the last decade — and it does so based on structural intermarket evidence, not opinion.

This piece is not contrarian for the sake of being contrarian, this is a macro framework based on a fundamental conditional alignment with key relationships between markets. This is an extremely important point to understand for any long term investor and will show you why the consensus view point is potentially deeply flawed.

What is forming right now is a rare macro alignment between gold, the dollar, interest rates, and equities. This is not a short-term trade setup. It is not a call for next week or next month. It is a structural condition that has only appeared a handful of times in market history. Each prior instance marked the end of one major macro regime and the beginning of another.

The dominant view today is clear: currency debasement is permanent, hard assets will outperform, stocks are in a bubble and the financial system is in slow-motion decline.

But when you step away from headlines and examine the actual asset relationships beneath the surface — stocks relative to gold, gold relative to real rates, the dollar relative to liquidity — the data tells a very different story.

This is not contrarianism for the sake of being different. It is a serious examination of market structure that suggests the consensus trade may be closer to completion than continuation.

And if this rotation resolves the way it has in prior cycles, the implications for long-term wealth creation will be enormous.

The Dollar Is Reinventing Itself Not Falling Apart

If this macro shift is forming, it won’t begin with headlines. It will show up in relative strength relationships. And that means we start by looking at the dollar, not as a political symbol, but as a benchmark of global capital flows.

The widely accepted assumption is:

dollar down = risk assets up

and dollar up = bad for risk assets.

But a simple review of the dollar verses the DOW will immediately tell you, that is not true.

The arrows on the DJI above directly correspond to the major highs and lows in the DXY. It is clear that bottoms in the dollar coincide with bottoms in the DJI. As where tops in the dollar are more ambiguous with no clear correlation to tops in the DJI.

There is no evidence in this chart to support the idea that a weaker dollar is good for risk assets and equities. In fact it would be quite the contrary where bull markets in the dollar coincide with big upswings in the DJI.

So what then is the real driver of a weak and strong dollar?

For that we have to look at Gold versus the dollar.

When gold is up the dollar is down and when gold is down the dollar is up.

This is a much tighter inverse relationship than the dollar versus stocks or risk assets like BTC. Take a moment to see this in the chart.

So if gold has been in a 10 year bull market and the dollar has been losing ground to gold since the 2021 top. What then, are other assumptions that could be wrong?

How about the fact that everyone is calling for the collapse of the dollar, while simultaneously predicting a huge continuation of the gold bull market up to 10k per ounce.

While yes, these could both be true if that were to happen, the reality is that this trade has become way too overcrowded at what has already been a 10-20 year bull market in gold returns.

Remarkably, these same conditions were present in both 1980 and 2008, the other two moments when gold marked major secular tops and both equities and the dollar carved out significant lows.

In each instance, sentiment was overwhelmingly one-sided. The consensus was fixated on debasement, inflation fears were elevated, and the belief in endless hard-asset outperformance felt unquestionable, much like it does today.

Yet, if we step back and take an objective look at the chart of the DXY, you can see it’s doing the same pattern it has done since the 2008 lows.

In both prior instances, the dollar had two significant peaks followed by a drop down to the range lows and a sweep of support at previous range highs. That’s exactly the same pattern its in today.

But how could this possibly be that the dollar is not actually going to hell and the global regime isn’t shifting? They told us we are in a currency debasement crisis and the US is losing global superpower status.

Well to answer that theres a lot we have to consider. For starters I want to share this Economist cover from last month.

This is very interesting depiction of the dollar as a snake to say the least. Many of you are probably aware of the magazine cover trading theory but here we can go a bit deeper into the symbolism.

Just last month we saw the Chinese new year bring an end to the year of the snake. But the real symbolism behind the snake year ending is that snakes shed their skin.

In other words when the snake year ends, the idea is that you are supposed to evolve to a better form by shedding off your old skin, metaphorically speaking. So is it just a coincidence that they decided to use this cover? I think not.

Before we look any further into the current situation let’s remind ourselves that the US has reinvented itself many times over throughout its history in a great 80 year cycle.

Beginning with the revolution in 1780, then the Civil War in the 1860s, followed by World War 2 in the 1940’s, which brings us to today in the 2020s.

This is why the US can remain a dominate super power for decades to come because unlike many empires of the past the US has shown a unique ability to evolve.

This could not be more apparent than if we look at the global restructuring we have seen in the last two months with the US seizing control of Venezuelan oil, threatening to take over Greenland, threatening Cuba, and ultimately trying to wrestle and reign in Iran, there is one clear theme going on and that is the struggle to secure massive amounts of natural resources that will be needed to build out the ai revolution.

From oil and rare earth minerals to critical shipping routes and transportation lanes, this broader tariff strategy and overall aggression is about far more than trade balances — it is about leverage and keeping the USD on top.

The US once weaponized the dollar through direct sanctions, that was the old model. Now the strategy is evolving. Instead of targeting countries outright, control is shifting toward strategic chokepoints in energy, critical resources, and most importantly, compute.

The leverage is no longer just exclusion from the system, but control over access to the infrastructure that powers global trade and the AI revolution.

The message is clear, if you want entry into global markets, if you want access to the compute layer defining the next technological era, you operate inside the dollar framework. It’s the same reason the US has to be the global super power in crypto because they are aiming to keep the world on a USD (stablecoin) system.

USD dominance isn’t being imposed the same way anymore instead its reinventing itself. It’s being engineered through control of the inputs that matter most.

The DXY is not failing, but rather shedding its old skin and reinventing itself for a new era of American power.

But the dollar alone doesn’t tell the full story. Its movements only make sense when viewed against the asset it has historically competed with for monetary supremacy: gold. If the dollar is repositioning, gold will be the confirming variable.

Gold Is the Macro Indicator

Gold is the ultimate piece to this puzzle we are putting together. We already covered how the DXY does not in fact tell you much about the stock market regimes but is instead a much better counter to gold regimes.

That said, there are also many false assumptions about GOLD, what it is, and how it moves markets.

The mainstream thinking is that gold is bad, whenever its in a bull market that means a crisis is brewing, wars, currency collapse etc etc. Now, I’m not saying it doesn’t go up when wars or crises happen but it is not the root cause of gold going up.

Again, a simple observation will show you that the prevailing narratives around gold are just not true.

Gold has had three major bull markets in its history if you include today’s bull market. The previous two bull markets lasted around 120 months which puts today’s gold market squarely into that time factor. Will this be a top? We don’t know yet, but the cycles suggest its closer to the end than the beginning.

Taking our time analysis a bit further and looking at the time it took gold to top, from the time it broke out of the green consolidation boxes in the image below, and you will see we are again in a late stage time frame.

In the first two cases, it was 23 months and 34 months respectively. The average of those two times is exactly 28.5 months which is exactly where we are now…

Finally, you will note that gold had a 27 year range after the 1980 top and now has been in a 27 year bull market off the 1999 bottom. Quite the confluence of 27 to 28 time cycles coming together.

But if gold is approaching a major top, what then, does this tell us about the overall market cycles?

Well, as I said before, most people have been misled about the role of gold and nothing makes that more apparent than looking below at the chart of the DJI index over the chart of gold.

When we do this, we get a very clear picture just like the dollar relationship, that when gold is in a big bull market stocks effectively go no where. And conversely, when gold tops stocks begin huge bull markets (after an initial correction phase).

But even this image is not enough to understand whats going on here. Because on the surface, this has been the correct viewpoint up until now as you can see the 2018 bottom in gold where stocks have also gone up…or have they?

This is an important distinction we will cover later in this article when we review equity performance relative to gold.

But for now its enough to see that major tops in gold actually start major bull markets in stocks (after an initial pull back) which is not what people have been led to believe.

Said another way, gold going parabolic actually signals that we are getting closer to a new secular bull market in stocks.

But why is that the case?

Well, if we think about what gold really is, and who holds it, it may become more clear.

Gold is the largest single asset in the world at a market cap of over 30 trillion dollars. For reference the entire market capitalization of all US stocks is around 50 trillion dollars.

So let’s think about why thats so important and why it actually enables the major macro regime shifts that last 20+ years.

Who is the largest holder of Gold in the world? It’s central banks.

So who benefits the most when the price of gold goes on a 10 or 20 year bull run? The central governments.

So while everyone in crypto thinks the government should have BTC as a store of value, the reality is that they already carry the most gold in the world and when gold outperforms everything the way it has they actually get much wealthier in real terms even if it doesn’t appear so in nominal debt terms.

So the smoke screen is that the government has the ability to devalue their own currency while simultaneously holding the one asset they need to maintain wealth in REAL terms.

So could it be the case, that even though debt skyrockets in dollar terms they are knowingly holding the one instrument they need to keep pace with it? It would appear so.

Which is why, when the ultra wealthy gold holders have secured decades worth of real value capture while dangling the nominal value thinking in front of everyone else, they can then open the spigots for real returns to catch up to gold returns for decades at a time.

Understanding gold’s cycle is critical because it dictates where real returns reside. And that brings us to the most misunderstood part of this entire framework — the difference between nominal gains and real wealth creation in equities.

The Illusion of Nominal Wealth

Before I dive into this section lets just be clear that everyone sees how I’m defining real and nominal returns.

The generally accepted economic view is that real returns are returns adjusted for inflation. In other words if you have a 5% return and inflation is 2% the real return is 5%-2%= 3%.

Nominal returns are returns not adjusted for inflation. So a 5% return is a 5% return without accounting for any inflation.

However, for the purposes of this article real returns are going to be considered returns adjusted for gold as a store of value.

In other words if gold is the store of value and not USD wouldn’t you want to know if you are getting richer in gold adjusted terms rather than dollar denominated terms? Because if your assets aren’t appreciating against gold then the logical answer would be to just own gold…

So lets dive in.

On the surface it would appear that stocks have been in a great bull market since the 2009 bottom.

But upon further review we may see why that is all just a smoke screen to whats really going on under the hood.

Looking at the below chart of the Dow Jones industrial average going back to 1880s we can see that there have only been four secular bull markets in history. Each of these bull markets was preceded by a decade long consolidation.

So right off the bat we can tell something is off about this structure because isn’t everyone under the impression that 2008 was a great bubble? Thats not at all what the chart actually says. Of course some sectors like housing may have had a moment, but the reality is that it was clearly not an asset bubble as indicated by the charts.

How can we confirm this? Well again, by looking at gold performance against equity performance the intermarket relationships become quite clear. Each colored box below on gold reflects its same colored box on the DJI.

Each one of these long sideways periods in the stock market coincided exactly with major bull markets in gold. When gold topped, secular bull markets of REAL returns began in equities. We’ve already proved this.

So now lets turn our focus to the actual chart of the DJI index paired against gold and this relationship becomes even more startling.

There is a lot we can take away from this chart so lets go through the observations

1. There have only been 4 times in history where equities have truly outpaced gold on a macro scale. Late 1920’s. 1932-1966. 1980-2001. 2011-2018.

2. Equities valuations have never come close to passing their 2000’s high relative to gold and in fact topped out against gold in 2017/18 or nearly a decade ago…

3. This is a 3 month chart and we are now in historically oversold levels relative to gold that has only been seen three other times in history.

4. Each of these times was a massive bear market bottom in equities which ushered in a macro top in Gold and a macro bottom in real equity returns.

It’s very important to understand whats going on here. Not only is gold at conditional levels for a major macro top, but at the same time equities are at conditional levels for a macro bottom on a relative basis. Now as you can see by the chart this is typically a 18-24 month process. Which means we should see this massive rotation beginning to play out now through 2027.

The key eye opener, is that if you start measuring real returns in assets against a true store of value like gold instead of in nominal terms like USD denominated inflation. You see that we have been in a near 10 year bear market of real returns in stocks. Pretty shocking.

The takeaway is very clear, unless you own the correct stocks on a 10-20 year basis like NVDA or META (to name a couple stocks of the very few that outperformed gold), when gold is in a macro bull market you should only own gold because real returns in other assets get crushed.

The opposite is also true, that when gold enters a macro top you want to be back in equities because thats where the true wealth gets built.

This is a lot to digest and I personally find it very eye opening and contrary to what everyone is taught to believe about gold and real returns from mainstream economics.

Gold is THE store of value and only real returns happen in gold during these periods where nominal returns happen in stocks with few exceptions. When this macro regime shifts as its only done less than a handful of times in history, then you want to own equities for real returns.

This is hard to believe since everyone thinks we have been in a major equities bull market, which we have…in nominal terms, but against real value? It’s clear we have not, at least since 2018.

I find a good analogy would be looking at the stock exchange of Zimbabwe or the price of bitcoin in Argentine pesos and concluding that everyone must be rich in those countries. However, if you paired those same markets against gold you would see a much different picture and the true reality of the situation.

Bitcoin in Real Terms

If gold is the true store of value benchmark, then equities are not the only asset that must be examined through that lens. The same logic must be applied to bitcoin — particularly if it aspires to compete as a monetary asset.

We talked the other week about how bitcoin can act as a store of value and what that may mean for the future of it.

But here let’s look at the real return of bitcoin relative to gold which appears to be the default SOV.

Again, several key takeaways from this chart but the first being the fact that BTC is flat against gold since its 2017 top. Not exactly the 10 year bear structure stock indexes have faced but it also hasn’t gone anywhere over that time period.

In other words, it’s not keeping pace with gold, but at the same time, it is doing better than stocks.

The other thing to note is that just like stocks, BTC is in a historically oversold level against gold while also matching a cyclical time factor for a low.

We now have multiple asset classes sitting at historically oversold levels relative to gold, while gold itself is stretched into historically overbought territory — yet the consensus insists it is headed dramatically higher on the back of money printing and a commodity supercycle narrative. The data suggests the opposite.

When every major asset is historically oversold against gold while gold is extended to extremes, the higher-probability outcome is not an endless continuation of the gold bull market, but the late stage of it — a macro topping process that sets the stage for a broad real bull run across risk assets. That may not be the popular view, but it is what the intermarket conditions are implying.

Real Rates and the Liquidity Pivot

So far we’ve examined relative value between assets. But there is one variable that determines when liquidity shifts between them: real interest rates. This is the pivot point that turns gold regimes into equity regimes — and vice versa.

Since 2022 everyone has become an expert on what the fed needs to do and what rates should be at. But lets look at what this relationship between gold and rates has signaled in the past.

Historically, when real rates are below 2% gold is where the money stays because why be in bonds when you can get a better real return on your gold?

Let’s look at this in the chart below and the relationship couldn’t be more clear. Each green arrow corresponds to each green arrow in all three charts and the same for each red arrow.

What you see is that during the period of the 80s and 90s rates were going down but ABOVE 2%. This corresponded exactly to a 27 year gold bear market and a 27 year real return bull market in equities. The key is that real rates were ABOVE 2% while going down.

Then everything changed in 2000 when real rates fell below 2% and kept declining. The bond market could no longer keep pace with gold returns. Gold began a massive bull market and stocks returns collapsed against gold.

Then you can see from 2011 to 2018 real rates began to rise again and stocks outperformed gold while gold fell quiet. Then in 2018 it stopped. Real rates fell off again while under 2% and gold resumed to a bull market while stocks have been losing the battle ever since.

You can even see the exact U shape move on rates from 2020 to 2022 corresponded exactly to the U shape move on the DOW against gold. But as soon as real rates stopped rising in 2022 and were still below 2% gold took control and has been in the drivers seat ever since.

The Ultimate Test

In no way can we complete this study without an in depth look at the 1970’s which we’re characterized by rising rates, rising inflation, rising gold prices, and stagnant stock prices.

At first look this would seem to derail our above data but when we take a closer look at what really went down we will see the relationships did exactly the same thing.

The below chart show the relationship between the US 10yr bonds, gold, and then DJI versus gold.

You can clearly see that from 1970 to 1974 rates were rising but real yields were still falling as inflation ramped up. So according to our view real rates declining while under 2% means gold outperforms. Sure enough thats exactly what happened. Gold went up while the DJI went no where and ultimately declined relative to gold.

Then in 1974 what happened? Real rates bottomed and began to rise as inflation peaked during the 1974 oil crisis. As real rates climbed for the next two years, gold declined over the same period while stocks went up.

Then again in 1976 real rates peaked, causing gold to bottom, and stocks underperform for the rest of the decade.

Then as inflation collapsed into the 80’s while rates were still rising, real yields rose and gold made a major peak while stocks hit a major low and began a real secular bull market.

Now Gann called the 50 year cycle the great cycle as it was the culmination of five 10 year cycles. 50 years ago was yes, the 1970s.

So is it any coincidence we find ourselves in a very similar situation today? Trouble with Iran causing an oil crisis, leading to higher inflation, forcing the fed to raise rates, all while gold appears to be in a topping scenario and stocks are massively oversold versus gold?

If these are in fact the conditions, which they do appear to be, then is it a stretch to consider a scenario in stocks like we saw in the 70s with a 2 year lag?

Oil crisis leading to higher inflation this year causes rates to rise leading to a huge bottom in stocks which results in a big move up into 2028 while gold has peaks in 2026 and underperforms. Then the real reckoning happens from 2028 to 2032 and from the 2030s on stocks go into a massive secular bull for 20+ years.

The conditions are eerily similar but only time will tell. What we do know is what to expect when these relationships do turn a corner.

The Verdict

The mainstream economic theory says low rates are good for business and good for stocks.

But once again, a simple observation of the actual intermarket relationships suggests otherwise. Gold has consistently been the preferred asset in low-rate environments, and that only tends to change when real rates begin rising meaningfully or move above roughly 2%. In other words, the issue is not simply whether rates are falling or rising in nominal terms. What matters is whether the bond market is offering a real return strong enough to compete with gold.

That makes perfect sense if you stop thinking about gold as a crisis asset and start thinking about it as the global liquidity engine.

When gold is outperforming real yields, it functions like a vacuum for liquidity. Large pools of capital know they cannot earn durable real returns elsewhere, so capital concentrates in gold. That is why gold bull markets are so powerful and so persistent. They are not just emotional reactions to fear. They are structural periods where liquidity has nowhere better to go.

That dynamic only changes once rates rise enough to restore competition. When real rates move high enough, particularly above that 2% threshold, capital can begin flowing back into bonds. And from there, it can ultimately spill back into equities. That is the real pivot. Not lower rates helping risk assets, but higher real rates pulling liquidity out of gold and redistributing it across the financial system.

So where is the misunderstanding?

The popular assumption is that stocks and crypto should perform best when rates are falling. But the historical relationships do not support that view. Lower rates may sound supportive on the surface, but if they also allow inflation to stay elevated or reaccelerate, then real returns in bonds remain too weak to challenge gold. In that environment, liquidity stays trapped in the gold regime.

That is why the real pro-business backdrop is not simply lower rates. It is higher real rates paired with contained inflation. That is the condition that allows liquidity to leave gold, move into bonds, and eventually expand outward into equities and other productive assets.

This is also why a major policy mistake may be forming. Trump has now installed a new Fed chair who appears committed to cutting rates, but that may prove to be exactly the wrong move at the wrong time. If rate cuts arrive into 2027 and inflation begins rising again, the market may start discounting that outcome well in advance. The result could be a selloff driven not by tight policy, but by the realization that easy policy is preventing real yields from becoming competitive.

In that scenario, bonds still do not offer enough real return, gold retains liquidity dominance, and the broader rotation into productive assets gets delayed.

That, in my view, is the real macro pivot to watch into 2027 and 2028.

And it is all right there in the intermarket relationships above.

When Gold Tops, Regimes Change

When you connect the dollar, gold, equities, bitcoin, and real rates, a single relationship sits at the center of everything.

Gold is the fulcrum of the system, and real interest rates are the force that tips it.

I have tried to punch holes in many ways in this framework but there’s simply no denying it. The main argument is that stocks still go up and people have gotten richer since 2000 but thats just not true.

This is extremely important to understand if you are a long term investor in a retirement account or any vestment period that is longer than 10+ years.

At the 2002 low the SPX traded at 729 today it trades at roughly 7,000 or a 811% gain in 24 years. Gold on the other hand, had you bought that at the 2001 lows, is up 2,100% in 24 years to $5,500.

A $100,000 dollar investment in the SPX would give you $811,000 today. A $100,000 dollar investment in gold would be worth $2,100,000 in the same time period. A $1.2 million dollar difference.

You think that might be important to know if you are 25 year old college graduate and putting all your money into the indexes every month? It’s clear, it makes all the difference in the world.

So as long term investors think they are safe just throwing money at the SPX every two weeks they have been taking in the shorts for 20 years without even knowing it. On paper they are up, but in real terms, against real value? they are down over 50% in two decades. Thats a big deal.

Even in the last 10 years, unless you owned the Mag 7, you have been getting smoked by gold.

The verdict is clear,

When gold enters a secular bull market, real returns across financial assets compress. Liquidity gravitates toward the monetary asset that cannot be diluted. Nominal gains may appear impressive, but when measured against gold, wealth creation stalls. That is the environment we have largely been in since 2018 if not since 2001.

However, this is not the time to panic and rush into gold. As demonstrated above it would be more likely at this point in time that this major 20 year bull market is coming to a close sooner than most gold bugs will realize

and the implications of that are enormous,

when real rates rise, gold tops — not temporarily, not cyclically, but structurally — and liquidity begins to rotate. The bond market becomes competitive again. Capital flows outward from the monetary reserve asset and back into productive risk assets. That is when true secular equity expansions begin.

This has only happened a handful of times in modern financial history. The late 1920s. The post-1932 expansion. and then again in the 1980s. Each marked the end of a gold regime and the beginning of a multi-decade wealth cycle in equities.

Right now, gold is extended on long-duration time cycles. Equities and bitcoin are historically compressed relative to it. All while real rates are at a pivot threshold that has previously marked major transitions.

This is not about being bullish or bearish next quarter. It is about recognizing that we may be in the late stage of a monetary-dominant cycle and on the verge of a productive capital cycle.

If gold is completing its secular move, then what follows is not another nominal bounce. It is the potential beginning of a real bull market that we haven’t seen in over 20 years — one measured not in weeks, but in decades.

That shift will not happen overnight. It is a process. Gold will top in a long distribution phase after a 10 year run. Equity bases will be forming. The dollar is reinventing itself and liquidity rotates gradually before it accelerates.

This is all what I see coming in the next 18-24 months. A potential policy error by the fed, a sell off in stocks, higher rates, a top forming in gold, and ultimately a new and real bull market beginning in equities and lasting long into the 2030’s and 40’s.

The decennial pattern of this century has been clear 2008-2010 was a rough period 2018-2020 was rough and that setup is emerging again in 2028-2030 as this massive macro rotation takes place. That doesn’t mean we wont see a big move up in stocks before then but it does suggest a big reset button is coming.

Then, when the rotation completes, the opportunity is asymmetric.

The last decade may have been a smoke screen — nominal highs masking real stagnation. The next decade, if this framework is correct, could look very different.

Because when gold releases its grip on global liquidity, capital does not disappear.

It flows.

And where it flows next will define the next 10 to 20 years.

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In fact, for our Founding Members this time factor isn’t new at all. We first began discussing its potential significance nearly a year ago, and it became a central part of the roadmap we laid out in December’s annual outlook.

Now that we are moving deeper into March, the market is rapidly approaching that window — and with each passing day the evidence continues to build that something significant is developing beneath the surface.

When multiple time factors begin to cluster together like this, history shows that the result is rarely subtle. These types of alignments tend to precede major pivots in the market, the kind that only become obvious after the move has already taken place.

That’s exactly what I want to focus on today.

As we move into the second half of March, I want to walk through the mounting evidence behind this window. We’ll start with the seasonal timing currently unfolding, then move into early April where a number of powerful time relationships begin to converge.

Taken together, these signals suggest that the market may be approaching a moment that could ultimately be remembered as a major turning point in this cycle.

With several tight windows compressing over the next three months, volatility is almost certain to explode. And unless you know the specific dates and structures to watch, navigating this period could become an emotional and confusing experience for many investors.

Fortunately, the market tends to leave clues long before these events unfold.

And right now, those clues are pointing directly at the weeks ahead.

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The Late March Pressure Window

As you know, we initially forecasted the week of March 16th in our annual outlook as one of the key weeks of the year.

Now that we’ve arrived in this window, it’s worth zooming in to examine why this period may be so important — and what it could mean as we move into April and May.

I covered many of the reasons for this window in the March 1 outlook, so rather than repeating everything, I want to focus today on one of the most powerful concepts in time analysis: the squaring of time and price.

Let’s start with the March 13, 2024 top, which came in at 73,808. Sunday, March 22nd will mark 738 days from that date.

In other words, price becomes time.

We can also square the range from the August 2024 bottom to the January 2025 top. That range measured 59,960 points — essentially 60,000.

Projecting that forward 600 days brings us directly to March 28th. Notably, 600 days itself is a recognized pressure date.

Next, we can square the range from the January 2025 top to the April 2025 low. That decline measured 34,918 points, which translates into a 349-day time window, landing again around March 22nd.

Finally, just to demonstrate how powerful this concept can be, let’s go back and square the decline from the March 2024 top to the August 2024 low.

That drop measured 24,457 points. Rounded to 245 days, it lands on the exact date of the April 2025 bottom.

Pretty powerful stuff.

Individually these signals would be interesting. But when they begin appearing together like this, the implications become much more significant

A Rare Confluence of Time and Price

In the years I’ve been studying this markets, I’ve rarely seen such a strong confluence between time and price relationships.

Taken together, the entire annual cycle from March 2024 through April 2025 appears to be pointing directly at this late March / early April window as a moment of major importance.

It’s also worth revisiting a few key points from our annual report.

When we examine the month of March historically, several important patterns emerge:

• March is the first month with a monthly time factor that has produced a major low

• The 60-day, 60-week, and 60-month cycles all appear to play an important role in this market

• And notably, four out of the five time factors in this study produced lows, meaning the major probabilities suggest a low.

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The Case for a Major April Low

Initially, I believed the November low might mark the bottom. That was the basis of my earlier outlook.

Clearly, that didn’t play out.

But that’s part of the process. Since then, I’ve been hesitant to call another bottom because we simply hadn’t seen a strong enough time window to support it.

Until now.

When we examine the major five-year cycles, each major top since 2013 has produced a major market bottom 60 months later.

If we measure from the first major top in 2021, we arrive directly at April of this year as the first major candidate for a serious bottom.

Gann’s Campaign Rule Is Now in Play

We also have one of Gann’s most important rules working in the background here.

He wrote:

“Bull or bear campaigns do not run more than 3 to 3½ years without a move of 3 to 6 months or one year in the opposite direction.”

Bitcoin rallied for 35 months, just one month short of the full three years.

Since then, the market has declined for six consecutive months, which brings us to April as the seventh month — a number Gann often referred to as the fatal number in cycle structures.

The Historical Pattern Behind This Window

When we step back and examine the broader historical cycles, the pattern becomes even more interesting.

In 2021, a major countertrend rally began in April and ran strongly into June after six consecutive green months.

In 2016, we also saw a powerful three-month cyclical move from April into June.

And again in 2011, a major low formed in April before launching a strong rally through early summer

So what do we see?

One cycle shows a massive countertrend rally after six months of strength — which mirrors the inverse of our current setup — while the other two cycles show a very strong bullish period beginning in April.

Taken together, the cyclical probabilities point toward the same conclusion which is a countertrend rally/bullish period.

The Powerful 180-Degree Time Factor

Finally, all of this will coincide with one of the most powerful timing tools Gann ever discovered: the 180-degree time factor.

This concept has been instrumental in our work.

Notice how the last several pressure dates marked a reversal lower. A major signal of a trend change would occur if this late March / early April time factor produces a reversal higher off a low, rather than another move lower.

There’s also an important rule regarding double tops.

When measuring time from a double top, the correct approach is to measure from the midpoint between the two tops.

Using that method, the 180-day window has already appeared — and it did in fact produce a low and reversal in March.

How This Pattern Has Repeated

To understand how powerful this time factor has been, we can look back at recent examples.

In 2024, measuring 180 days from the midpoint of the March–April double top produced a higher low.

In 2023, performing the same calculation produced another important higher low.

Even during the 2021 bear market, the 180-degree date marked a major swing low and reversal.

In other words, these dates consistently matter.

The Pattern Within This Cycle

Another interesting observation is that these 180-degree cycles tend to balance out within the year.

In our current cycle, they appear repeatedly around September–October and again around March–April, which is obvious considering they are roughly six months apart.

When we expand the analysis further:

• 180 weeks ago from April would mark the 2022 bear market bottom

• 180 months ago would land in April 2011, which also produced a major market low

The pattern continues to repeat across multiple timeframes.

And if we look at the behavior of the market since 2023, each March–April window has produced a double move and reversal.

So the question becomes:

What are the odds we see one more low inside this window that forms a major bottom?

In my view, they are very high.

The Coming Inflection Point

When we step back and look at the entire picture — the squaring of time and price, the long-term cycles, the historical patterns, and the powerful 180-degree relationships — it becomes very difficult to ignore what the market is telling us.

April stands out as one of the strongest candidates for a major reversal that we have seen in quite some time.

Since the November low failed to hold, we have not seen a time factor with enough evidence to confidently suggest a major turning point. But this window is different. The amount of cyclical pressure building into late March and early April is unlike anything we’ve seen over the past six months.

At the same time, the market has endured six months of relentless selling pressure with almost no relief. Sentiment is extremely negative, the macro backdrop is filled with fear, and most investors are preparing for the worst.

Time and again the market has shown that when these time relationships begin to converge, something important is about to happen.

That doesn’t mean the path will be easy. We could very well see one final wave of panic, perhaps driven by negative headlines or another sharp shakeout.

But if the structure continues to unfold the way it appears to be setting up, that move would likely mark the final low of this decline, followed by a powerful reversal.

In other words, the pressure that has been building for months is about to resolve.

And if the analysis is correct, the next move will catch a lot of people off guard.

The way we have been tracking the market into this time factor suggests we are now approaching a major pivot window.

Across multiple charts we’re seeing the same pattern emerge: major 90-day cycle pressure dates converging into a single window that falls right into a seasonal turning point for the market.

This is a setup we first began mapping out in December, and then refined in early February.

Now the window we’ve been preparing for is arriving.

In this report I’m going to walk through:

• The time factors now triggering across the market
• Why they suggest a major inflection point is approaching
• And the 8 memecoin setups I believe have the most asymmetric upside right now

These are the types of structures that historically produce 10x–100x moves when liquidity returns to the market.

If this cycle continues to track the way it has so far, the next phase could begin very quickly.

As the saying goes:

It doesn’t take a lot of time to make a lot of money.
It takes a lot of time to get ready for it.

We’ve spent the last several months preparing for this window.

Now it’s time to execute the system.

Below I’ll walk through the exact time factors triggering this window and the 8 setups I believe have the highest asymmetric upside right now.

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The days of buying and holding Bitcoin for outsized exponential returns may be coming to an end.

For the last decade and a half Bitcoin holders have worked tirelessly to position BTC as the most pristine asset in the world. Digital gold. Store of value. Immutable monetary reserve. On that front they have largely succeeded.

Bitcoin now has ETFs. Institutional custody. Sovereign adoption. Public company treasuries. It has legitimacy.

But before we decide what that means for returns we need to step back and ask a more important question.

What actually happens to assets that become stores of value?

To answer that we start with gold.

Serious investors follow the full research behind these reports.

Paid members receive the complete macro framework including cycle analysis, market timing signals, and the structural relationships shaping crypto and global markets.

Upgrade now to read the full report.

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That is our edge and the theme we will be covering in this outlook.

Going forward, we will be staying with this format for paid readers. No weekly noise or constant reactive commentary. Just high-probability monthly time windows distilled down from our macro framework and annual forecast.

We will lay out the key inflection points and moments where trend, sentiment, and liquidity are most likely to shift. Founding members will continue to get the weekly and daily execution framework, but this report is about timing. It’s about knowing when the market is most vulnerable to volatility.

And the data for March is undoubtedly signaling one of the most important months of the year.

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There is a growing belief that we are on the verge of a technological “Aipocalypse” and entering a world of mass unemployment, universal basic income, and entire industries will be rendered obsolete almost overnight.

As the AI trade spills beyond software into cybersecurity, logistics, trucking, and the broader economy, that fear has only intensified. The assumption is simple: as adoption spreads, human labor will no longer be needed.

I’m not going to overwhelm this argument with charts or data because it doesn’t require them. The answer is intuitive, historical, and grounded in something far more permanent than any quarterly report or productivity statistic. It’s grounded in physical law.

There are certain inescapable laws that govern reality whether we acknowledge them or not.

One of them is simple: energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transferred. That law does not stop applying because a new technology is released.

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Economies are systems of energy transfer. Labor is energy. Capital is stored energy. Production is energy transformed into goods and services.

You do not get output without input. You do not get something for nothing. Every product, every service, every innovation begins with energy, and in human systems that energy ultimately resolves through human coordination and effort.

Jobs are structured outlets for that energy. They are how human energy expresses itself inside the economic machine.

When people talk about AI “eliminating jobs,” what they are really suggesting is that energy will somehow vanish from the system. That is not how reality works. Energy does not disappear because technology improves. It reallocates.

Every major technological breakthrough in history triggered the exact same panic. The printing press. The steam engine. Electricity. Computers. And the internet were all going to collapse entire industries.

The reality was in every case, certain roles were disrupted. But total labor did not disappear. Productivity expanded, output increased, and entirely new fields were born. The workforce did not simply evaporate overnight but rather it transferred its energy elsewhere.

AI will not break that pattern, it will follow it.

The common rebuttal is that this time is different because artificial intelligence can “do everything,” and therefore universal basic income will become necessary because humans simply won’t be needed.

This argument ignores something even more powerful than technology, human nature.

Work is not just about income. These are not just “tasks’’ that the experts would have you believe.

For most people, work provides identity, structure, direction, social connection, and purpose. Remove that entirely and you do not create a stable society full of fulfilled individuals. You create drift.

Most people are not self-directed. They do not wake up every day with perfectly organized intrinsic motivation and long-term vision. They rely on structure. They rely on responsibility. They rely on expectations. That’s not a bad thing, its simply how social systems function.

People already have the option, in many cases, to opt out of a job and collect unemployment benefits. Yet most choose not to detach from structure because even individuals who dislike their jobs often prefer that discomfort over complete aimlessness.

Idle time does not magically produce fullfillment. It more often produces stagnation and a hell, worse than going to a job you hate.

The idea that hundreds of millions of people will happily detach from economic participation because a machine can perform certain cognitive tasks ignores centuries of observable behavior.

Societies require structure to maintain order.

Economies require participation to sustain themselves.

A world in which no one works is not some enlightened equilibrium. It is instability. The idea that leaders, institutions, and economic systems would intentionally dissolve the primary structures that keep societies functional is completely detached from reality.

Now circling this back to AI itself.

Even if certain roles are automated, the energy behind them does not vanish. By law it cant.

Companies adopting AI will not press a button and delete their workforce. Instead its more likely, they will hire specialists to integrate systems, engineers to build infrastructure, teams to manage data, operators to maintain hardware, and experts to optimize performance.

This requires expanding power usage, building data centers, manufacturing chips, upgrading networks, and redesigning processes.

Old roles will contract while new roles expand yet net energy will remain in motion.

AI is far closer to the discovery of electricity than it is to any economic apocalypse. Electricity did not make the world obsolete. It enhanced it. It was energy that was always there it just needed to be captured by the correct mechanism to be used.

It permeated nearly every industry and made existing systems more productive. But it required power plants, transmission lines, transformers, wiring, manufacturing expansion, and maintenance.

Entire industries were created around supporting that one breakthrough. Cars, factories, homes, and machines did not disappear in the face of electricity. They incorporated it and became better.

Similarly intelligence has always been here we are simply capturing it in a new mechanism to be directed towards new systems.

AI is intelligence being digitized and scaled.

That scaling requires semiconductor fabrication, rare earth extraction, advanced manufacturing, cooling systems, energy grid expansion, software development, cybersecurity, and regulatory oversight.

None of that materializes without labor.

You cannot automate thermodynamics. If demand for AI explodes, the physical world must expand to support it, and physical expansion requires coordinated human effort.

Look around at the real economy. Most small businesses are barely digital even now.

Many large corporations operate on legacy systems decades old. Adoption curves are always slower and more complex than the so called experts suggest.

There are still physical bank tellers despite online banking existing for years. Transitions are gradual. Infrastructure need to catch up. And ultimately humans prefer hybrid systems. Technological shifts unfold over time, not in a single catastrophic wave.

The deeper mistake in the AI apocalypse narrative is the assumption that this innovation somehow overrides universal laws.

It does not. You cannot get something for nothing. If AI creates value, someone must design it, build it, power it, maintain it, improve it, regulate it, and integrate it. That requires energy. And in an economy, energy ultimately manifests through structured human action.

No revolutionary technology in history has permanently rendered half the workforce irrelevant. Not because humans resist change, but because economies adapt. Labor reallocates. Productivity rises. Output expands. New industries emerge. Human beings evolve alongside their tools rather than surrender to them.

If you want to bet that this time the laws governing energy, behavior, and economic structure simply stop applying, you can. I will take the other side.

AI will make systems faster, more efficient, and more intelligent. It will enhance productivity across industries. It will disrupt roles and create new ones. What it will not do is eliminate the need for human energy inside the economic machine.

History is clear. Physics are clear. Human nature is clear.

Jobs will not disappear from the economy because its the law.

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Back on February 3rd, I said this mid-to-late February period would be pivotal. Now we’re here — and the cycles, conditions, and timing are starting to align.

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90-Day Cycle + 180-Day Inflection

Ethereum is sitting right at a 90-day cycle inflection —

• The November low came precisely on a 90-day turn.

• Fast forward another 90 days, and we land in this February 19–23 window.

• We’re also hitting a 180-degree time factor from the August top.

That gives us cycle alignment for a quarterly low

Now we look for confirmation in conditions.

Divergences Are Building Across the Board

Across multiple key charts we’re seeing what we want to see at a potential reversal:

• ETH dominance showing bullish divergence.

• ETH/BTC flashing exhaustion signals.

• Bitcoin dominance rolling over with weekly bearish divergence.

• Others vs BTC hitting major resistance with daily divergence.

• Others vs ETH tapping the 50% expansion zone that historically ignites high-risk rallies.

This is not one isolated signal but a market wide confluence.

And when time + conditions + divergence line up, that’s when moves begin.

The “Zone” That Ignites Explosive Moves

There’s a specific zone on the Others vs ETH chart that has triggered every major high-risk expansion since 2021.

Each time we enter that zone:

• Small caps explode.

• On-chain activity surges.

• Meme and AI tokens go vertical.

We just tapped that zone again.

And historically, the real move tends to begin in the last week of February.

Historical Pattern: Late February → March Expansion

Looking back at prior cycles:

• SHIB (2021) bottomed late February → massive spring expansion.

• WIF / Solana ecosystem (2024) ignited late February → explosive March rally.

• PEPE (2024) launched its major leg right in this window.

The pattern is consistent:

1. Early-year spike.

2. Sharp correction.

3. Late-February bottom.

4. Violent move into March/April.

Right now, many AI and meme coins have:

• Already had their January expansion.

• Corrected 70–90%.

• completing consolidation.

That’s structurally similar to prior expansion phases.

Risk-On Barometers Are Turning

Even outside crypto:

• GME showing bullish divergence.

• High-beta equities starting to base.

• Sentiment extremely bearish.

• Four-year-cycle collapse narratives everywhere.

When bearishness gets crowded into a key time window, that provides fuel

What This Means

We have:

• 90-day and 180-degree cycle alignment

• Weekly and daily divergences

• Historical seasonal precedent

• Structural rotation signals

• Extreme sentiment

That doesn’t guarantee outcome. But it does signal preparation.

The next 7–10 days are likely a bottoming process in high-risk names. And historically, when this window resolves to the upside, the move into April can be fast and aggressive.

Not a year-long rally.

But a sharp, high-beta expansion phase.

Bottom Line

Cycles are aligned.
Conditions are being met.
Timing is here.

Now we watch execution.

If this follows prior structure, the next 10 days you’ll want to be paying attention

When these windows hit, the move doesn’t wait.

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As the herd packs up shop and waits for the four year cycle bottom later in 2026, the most profitable structural shift in half a decade is happening right under their noses.

In this report, we are tracking the screaming divergences between global macro rotation and the crypto tape. We’re moving past the noise to show you exactly why the altcoin sector isn’t just ready to outperform but being pushed to do so by the same cyclical forces driving economic activity to record highs.

You’ll see that one of these assets is not like the others and history is calling its bluff.

From Bitcoin Fixation to Rotation Signals

It’s almost heresy to mention the phrase alt season in what has now been a 5 year bear market for the sector against the benchmark btc.

But as the great fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller once said, “Watch what is acting well, not what you think should act well.”

At this stage most are simply watching BTC and its four year cycle and thinking “good game, I’ll come back in Q4 and play again.”

But these people are missing the subtle cues that the market is sending and telling quite a different story as to what may be brewing.

First, I want to go back to a post I shared on August 20th of last year highlighting to fractals with relation to time that I saw as most prescient to the current state of bitcoin dominance and the ETH trade.

Now fast forward to today and without moving these fractals at all this is what they look like 6 months later…

I’m not a huge fractal fan as they generally just superimpose what the analyst wants to happen on the chart. However, going back and revisiting these after a period of time to see how right or wrong they really have been can lead us into some more clues about where the market really stands.

In my view the fractals have to be based on the cyclicals of the market and these appear to be nailing where we are in the cycle. That would suggest that you might want to be paying attention to alts while no one else is. If you want more chart based evidence go back and watch the video I made last week.

Ethereum as the Macro Canary

So we have an interesting looking setup in the ETH trade based on the above charts but how does ETH itself stack up with where we currently are in the broader cycle?

When Economic Momentum and ETH Diverge

I want to first start with the ISM. I know this is boring as many highlight it but there is a good relationship in general although not a direct 1 to 1 correlation. You can see the overall major moves do in fact mirror each others structure. What’s rare when looking at this chart is that a major move up in ISM coincides with a major move down in ETH. The last time we saw this big of a divergence was 2016.

The ISM made headlines last week with a huge surprise on the upside indicating that economic conditions may be improving. The question is will ETH follow suit? history says its likely.

Consumer Staples Are Breaking Out — This Is Not Defensive

Another sector of the market that is making headlines recently is the XLP consumer staples ETF. Normally people see this as a defensive play in the market and a warning sign but when we look at in the context below I think you will see a different picture being painted.

XLP has a pretty consistent pattern of going through long sideways consolidation before having big upside breakouts. When we look at the boxes below that coincide directly with the boxes on the ETH chart we can see that we have had only 4 such breakout moves like this in the last 10 years. Each one of these moves correlated directly with big bull market moves in stocks, not defensive positioning. Furthermore, we can see that when these rare breakouts happen we also get a big move in ETH.

Right now this move in ETH is deviating from this relationship. So again, the question becomes which move is the liar? History would suggest the it’s the down move in ETH.

Airlines Don’t Lie About Risk Appetite

This next chart might be my favorite relationship that no one talks about, the ETH vs global airlines ETF.

Generally airline stocks go up when the economy is on strong footing. It signals that people have excess money to spend on travel and leisure. Not something you see in a downturn when people are hoarding money and penny pinching.

Below we have nearly a 1 to 1 correlation with highs and lows in ETH and JETS. JETS just made a 5 year breakout to new highs while ETH cratered. This is rare. The last time it happened was 2016. JETS is signaling that despite all the bearishness on the economy, airline earning are going up which means people are traveling more and more. This means they are feeling more confident in their future finances and willing to spend more money traveling. By the history of this chart it would appear when people have excess money to travel they also have excess money to invest and speculate on crypto.

Small Caps Are Confirming the Rotation

Finally, just to really drive the point home lets look at the relationship with IWM. Overall, you have a very similar structural pattern in moves, yet not exactly the tightest relationship. That said, you can still see the last time we had this severe of a pullback in ETH while the IWM broke out was 2016.

Ethereum at a Familiar Cycle Inflection

Wrapping up by just looking at the big picture structure of ETH we can see many similarities between this price movement and the movement around 2020 panic and 2016 bottom. Roughly 60% correction to a key cycle support zone and backtesting the breakout of a major trend line from previous cycle top all before the real fun began.

Conclusion: One of These is Not Like The Other

When you line up ETH against IWM, XLP, JETS, and the ISM, the conclusion becomes unavoidable: either every major macro signal is wrong at the same time, or ETH is doing exactly what it has done at prior inflection points—resetting, backtesting, and compressing before expansion.

Markets rarely send four independent confirmations in the same direction without resolution. History shows that when this kind of divergence appears, price eventually realigns with the broader cycle, not the other way around.

The evidence suggests ETH is likely to start playing catch up rather than fall into a bear market.

And when that snap back begins, it tends go faster and further than most are positioned for.

Price action since mid-January invalidated some of my short-term expectations, but nothing has broken the larger cycle framework we have been using. What we’re seeing now is not trend failure but rather it’s compression of a bear move that may lead to some serious short squeezes in alts over the coming months.

As we currently stand, Bitcoin and ETH are sitting on major structural support while multiple time factors converge around Feb 20th:

• BTC tagged a key support zone tied to prior cycle tops.

• ETH is approaching a critical 180-day / 180-degree turn after topping ahead of BTC.

• All of this is happening at a seasonal midpoint and time by degrees date.

However, the real signal is under the surface with alt coins and how they have reacted to the most recent sell off in BTC.

The Altcoin Market vs BTC is showing similar behavior to late 2024.

• Multiple major weekly and monthly cycles converging suggesting a major low has already been hit.

• The relationship between alts and btc.d is shifting with a major time window approaching.

• ETH/BTC chart confirms the importance of this window with daily and weekly signals lining up into mid-February (around the 20th).

Expectation:
Volatility into mid-month → inflection → potential altcoin squeeze starting into March–April, with May lining up as the next major cycle waypoint.

Ignore the Cassandra’s calling for doom and gloom all year.
Time is doing the work and alts are looking constructively bullish headed into a key window for BTC.D

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While the majority of the market spent the last three months complaining that “crypto is broken,” our readers were watching the clock. We knew the consolidation in risk was a mirror image of the past patterns—a coil winding up for a generational release. Now, as we enter 2026, that coil is snapping.

The “wait and see” period is officially over. We are entering a high-velocity, risk-on environment where laggards will be left behind and those with a proven system will find the 100x to 1000x moves. I have spent the last few weeks in our private chat fine-tuning our positions and making aggressive adjustments. Today, I am pulling back the curtain on the complete strategy.

Below is the full breakdown of our Macro Compass and Aggressive Alpha portfolios—the “Barbell Strategy” that allows us to capture the stability of market leaders while hunting for the “white swan” winners that can alter financial fortunes.

If you aren’t positioned for the Great Rotation of 2026, you aren’t paying attention.

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We are standing at the edge of a massive structural turning point. The macro signals aren’t just whispering; they are screaming. From the geopolitical “risk chess” moves in Venezuela and Greenland to a domestic policy shift that is effectively a “forced” risk-on environment, the stage is set.

Monday morning starts a window where Time, Cycles, and Liquidity all converge. Here is why we are about to see the biggest move in risk in half a decade.

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The “By Any Means Necessary” Economy

The American consumer is being set up to feel richer before the midterms. The hits are coming fast, and they are all designed to inject liquidity and force capital out of “safety” and into “risk.”

• The Housing Shock: Trump’s directive for the government (via Fannie and Freddie) to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds is a massive signal. It’s a direct attempt to force rates down and unstick the housing market.

  

• The War on Institutional Hoarding: By moving to block BlackRock and other mega-corps from buying single-family homes, the administration is clearing the path for the “American Dream” to resurface.

  

• Capping the Rent-Seekers: Capping credit card interest rates and defense company stock buybacks/dividends isn’t just populism—it’s a reallocation of capital. If defense contractors can’t buy back their own stock, that money has to go into production, R&D, and eventually, the broader market.

  

Geopolitical Risk Chess: Securing the Future

While the headlines focus on the “aggression and fear,” the market sees the securing of assets.

• Venezuela & Oil: The US just covertly secured the largest oil reserves in the world. Trump’s goal? Secure and Lower energy costs = higher disposable income = higher risk appetite.

• The Greenland Play: Whether it’s the “easy way” or the “hard way,” the move for Greenland would be the largest land deal in history. It’s about resources, minerals, and security. Buying Greenland outright would be a massive government expenditure.

• Military Spending: A 75% increase in military spending ($500 billion) is a massive liquidity injection into the industrial complex and more proof that you don’t need QE from the fed for money to enter the system.

The Chart of a Generation: IWM vs. SPX

Look at the IWM/SPX chart. We are looking at a 25-year double bottom culminating with a massive signal candle. Zoom in further, and the 4.5-year downtrend looks identical to the Alt/BTC charts right before they explode.

Russell 2000 vs SPX and Nasdaq

Russell 2000 vs SPX and Alt Coins vs BTC

The Data Doesn’t Lie:

• Russell 2000 (IWM): GS projects EPS +67% this year. Earnings growth drives stock prices. Period.

  

• Early Leaders Continue Winning: IWM and BTC are leading the year (+5.7% for IWM already). Tech and the Mag 7 are the laggards. This is the Great Rotation we’ve been calling for months.

  

  

  

• The Meme Tell: Subtle tells like AMC popping and KSS (Kohl’s) quietly leading are the “canaries in the coal mine.” When the laggards of the 5-year cycle start moving, the animal spirits are officially back

  

Why Next Week Could Change Everything

If you don’t understand Time, you are missing half the picture. We are entering a 180-degree window from the July meme coin tops, landing us right on January 12th.

1. The Anniversary Effect: January 12th is the 5-year anniversary of the 2021 GME squeeze.

   

2. The Degree Date: It is exactly 720 days (360 x 2) from the all-time low of the IBIT (Bitcoin ETF).

   

3. The Regulatory Catalyst: The Crypto Market Structure Bill is set to pass in this exact window which just so happens to be 180 days from the passing of the GENIUS act.

   

In 2024, it was the BTC ETF launch. In 2025, it was the “Crypto President” inauguration. In 2026, it’s the legal framework for Alt coins.

Major anniversary dates coinciding with key cycle times. The pattern is perfect.

The Verdict: Crypto Will Outperform Mag 7

The “Forest for the Trees” problem is real. People are chasing Gold and Silver because they are scared, but they are missing the fact that BTC was the only major asset in the red last year.

In a world of $200B housing injections, $500B military hikes, and aggressive rate drops, liquidity is no longer the problem.

The problem is positioning. As small caps and alts start to move, the “chase” will begin. People will stop looking for “safety” and start looking for beta. We are in the 90-week window—the same one that triggered the real move after the 2020 Covid crash. The “Wheel within the Wheel” is turning.

Risk is not just a line on a chart; it’s a regime that permeates the collective mindset. With high-stakes geopolitical moves in motion, societal behavior is soon to follow—and that shift will manifest in the markets sooner than most expect.

The time to take risk is when no one else is. That time is now.

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This report focuses on the one event that has fundamentally altered the trajectory of the crypto cycle.

As the saying goes, change is the only thing inevitable in life and the one thing people hate most. Most seek out comfort and familiarity as a refuge from a world of uncertainty and chaos.

However, that is exactly what markets are: a real-time visualization of that very uncertainty. Yet, many traders still try to find “comfort” in this game, which is a surefire recipe for disaster.

Anyone who has been in the markets long enough knows that the moment you get overly comfortable with a pattern is the exact moment the market moves to exploit that comfort.

When it comes to crypto cycles, it seems far too many people have grown too familiar with the traditional four-year rhythm. The market loves this familiarity.

Today, I’m going to show you the one key event that provides substantial evidence of exactly how, why, and when this cycle was altered.

This analysis doesn’t change our outlook for 2026, in fact, it complements our forecast and provides fresh evidence as to why so many people are likely to get this year completely wrong.

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As we move into 2026, the noise is overwhelming.

Is AI peaking after a historic run?
Can equities continue defying gravity?
Is crypto “over” after a difficult 2025 or setting up for something far bigger?
And most importantly: where are the real signals hiding?

These are the questions dominating sentiment right now. And sentiment, as usual, is pulling investors in the wrong direction.

This report exists to do the opposite.

Inside this outlook, I’m not guessing. I’m mapping time, price, structure, and probability — using the same cycle frameworks and techniques that have consistently kept us ahead of major turning points in recent years. Not by reacting late, but by preparing early.

2026 will not be a straight line.
It will not reward patience alone.
And it will absolutely punish those trading headlines instead of timing.

What you’re holding here is a roadmap — not just for Bitcoin, but for crypto, equities, and the macro forces tying them together. You’ll see where cycles converge, where psychology breaks, and where opportunity quietly builds while most are distracted by fear or euphoria.

In this outlook, we’ll walk through:

• The dominant Gann cycles and time windows that matter most in 2026

• Additional multi-year cycles aligning beneath the surface

• The macro and political forces likely to catalyze — not derail — volatility

• A clear, time-based framework for when markets are most vulnerable… and most explosive

By the end, you won’t just have an opinion on 2026.
You’ll have dates, ranges, and a complete plan.

You’ll know where the market is most likely to accelerate, where it’s most likely to break, and why the middle of this year may prove far more important than most currently understand.

Winners don’t move on certainty.
They move on preparation.

And 2026 is shaping up to be a year where those who understand time will dramatically outperform those who don’t.

Let’s get into the work.

The public version of this article only scratches the surface.

Paid members receive the full macro reports including the cycle work, structural relationships between major asset classes, and the timing windows we track throughout the year.

This research focuses on identifying major turning points in markets before the narrative catches up. From equities to the dollar to crypto, the goal is always the same: understand the underlying structure and position ahead of the move.

If you want access to the full analysis, macro forecasts, and the signals we are watching as this cycle unfolds, become a paid subscriber.

Serious market participants can also join the Founding Member tier which includes private discussion, deeper daily insight into the markets, and the high-conviction opportunities developing across crypto.

Upgrade below to read the full report.

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I am also going to be adding a three new alt coin positions to our portfolios.

And lastly I am discussing some important psychological tips to handle an environment like this as well as some key things to look for with Digital Asset Research going into the new year.

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everything will be tokenized.

It started last week with Larry Fink head of Blackrock saying that tokenization is where the internet was in 1996 at the Dealbook summit along side Brian Armstrong.

Then it morphed into SEC chair Paul Atkins echoing that sentiment saying that everything will be tokenized.

And then it culminated with Coinbase revealing that they are working with several major banks behind the scenes to bring them onchain.

This has been a wave that has been building for some time starting with the real world asset (RWA) bubble in early 2024 and now that we have real regulatory clarity on the way with huge deregulation from top government agencies like the SEC and CFTC the path has been cleared for a huge leap forward in this arena in 2026.

Today there is one quiet leader in the tokenization race that has been positioning themselves as the go to platform for institutional tokenization and major players like Coinbase have taken notice.

If successful in its Coinbase aligned strategy targeting a total addressable market of 2 trillion in assets, capturing even a fraction of the market would mean huge upside for this token.

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I’m in the second camp, and today I’m going to show you exactly why this dip isn’t the start of some dreaded extended bear it’s the final major low of the entire cycle.

I’ve called every single important bottom this cycle with the same toolkit, and it’s never been louder than it is right now.

While most are trapped in the oversimplified “four-year cycle” meme and nothing else, you already know there are far bigger, far more dominant timeframes running the show.

The four-year cycle isn’t wrong it’s just a tiny cog inside a much larger machine most people can’t even see.

Context is everything. Conditions are everything. And right now, every single layer of Gann analysis we rely on: time cycles, market structure, price levels, seasonal turns, and perfect time/price squares is saying the same thing—we are at the pivot.

Let me prove it to you with five interlocking pieces that have never failed us once this cycle.

1. The Cycle of 7 hitting from every angle (7 years, 7 months, 7 weeks, 7 days)

2. Market structure that’s actually getting stronger, not weaker

3. The one Gann price level (0.375) that has caught every major low this cycle

4. A stack of seasonal anniversary dates and 225°/45-day turns all converging this week

5. Multiple time/price squares nailing the exact day and price zone we just tagged

This isn’t hope or speculation. This is pure market geometry and time lining up in a way that only happens at the most important turning points.

The market has done its job by shaking out the weak hands, flipped the sentiment ice-cold, and convinced 90% of participants that the bull is dead. That’s exactly what it’s supposed to do right before the real move starts. By the time you finish this piece you’re going to see this low the same way we do—as the inflection point that sends this Bitcoin cycle into 2026.

Cycle of 7

The first cycle to consider here is the 7 year cycle which can be broken down into a 7 month, 7 week, or 7 day cycle. Last week I shared this same view on the ETH cycle and now we are going to take a look at it on BTC.

The below image is one of Ganns cycle rules on why the number 7 is of so much importance in a market.

We can look at the monthly chart to see how this translates.

As you can see below, 84 months is 7 years and every 84 months we have seen a major low. Taking the midpoint of this cycle at 42 months has also given us a low to low cycle.

When we zoom into this cycle we can also measure the time frames from monthly low to monthly low and we see that each monthly low has come in right at the 7 month mark from the last major low.

Lastly, we can see on the weekly cycles that the market did in fact decline for 7 weeks (45 days) which Gann says to watch this time period for daily and weekly corrections to culminate.

All said, we can see a the cycles of 7 coming together from the monthly down to the daily suggesting that this is an important inflection point in this market.

Market Structure and Price Levels

A lot of people talk about market structure and higher highs and lower lows but few people actually understand it. Similar to the four year cycle crowd its all they know, they don’t actually understand cycles, or what they mean.

People that think this market structure has turned bearish do not actually know what market structure is or how to judge it.

Gann always emphasized that the most important indication of a change in trend is TIME.

In a bull market the price will run up for longer periods of time than it runs down. Not only that, but the time a market runs down will not exceed the previous run down. This is what we call balancing time.

When the length of down moves in a market continually get shorter the market is a signaling strength.

Look at the length of corrections this cycle they have continually been shorter and shorter indicating that the trend has not signaled change and the market is actually showing strength.

Then we can talk about corrections in price. Here is a clip from “45 Years in Wall Street” by Gann.

What people are missing in this latest correction is exactly the above. If you go back over the previous BTC cycles the corrections as we progressed through the cycle become increasingly violent in price but of less length in time. This is a sign of a strong market that is getting more volatile as it approaches a peak.

The below chart shows this is exactly what is happening in this structure, sharper and sharper pull backs but of shorter and shorter duration.

Price Levels

Measuring price retracements from the cycle low there is one key support level that has held all cycle long and continues to be a major factor at every low.

That level is the 0.375 Gann level. Gann divided price movements into eighths rather than using the typical fib levels.

In this case we can see how this level has marked the bottom off every major high so far from 2023 on.

2023 top

2024 top

January 2025 top

October 2025 top

Each time price has reached this level off a major top, it has been the bottom. This time that level came up at 84,420 and the price held and closed above it on the weekly.

Seasonal Patterns

Next we have some strong seasonal times to consider.

The first is the Major high that came in on December 17th of last year. That is a 360 degree date and an anniversary date that comes up again on the 12th of December.

That also shows us the low that came in 225 degrees from the April low and marks a seasonal swing time according to Gann.

When you split the year into 8ths as Gann did you come up with 8 sections of 45 degrees in the year.

So not only do we get the time of 225 days to watch for a trend change but that date came 45 days off the October top.

Lastly, I want to take another look at the 15 year cycle as I see it being of major importance going into 2026.

In that cycle we got the low 15 years ago on the week of December 6th.

Recently, we saw an inversion of this major cycle but if we are to be getting back on track a low around this time frame would make sense.

Together we have a key anniversary date from last years December top, coinciding with the yearly seasonal pattern, and showing a potential reversal in line with the 180 month cycle.

Squaring Time and Price

Measuring time frames, time by degrees, and seasonal times will get you 90% of the way there when trying to work out major pivots but the real nail in the coffin on this analysis is when time and price squares out with it all.

We know price and time squared out on the decline with a 46k move down in 46 days so we have a strong reversal point on the daily 1/1 angle.

We can further the strength of that squaring by looking back to the August 2024 low below. That low occurred at a price of 49,577. If we look forward from that low 495 days you get December 13 which is just one day out from the top of last year and the seasonal time. *note the midpoint of this square came exactly at the April bottom.

Next looking at some higher time frame squares if we take the low of the cycle at 15,480 we can go forward 1,548 days and up 154,800 points and you get the below line that squares time and price from the cycle low.

Additionally, I want you to pay attention to just how important the cycle low is.

Notice how the price of 15,480 turned into that first range up from the bottom which was 15,500 points.

You will continually notice how price turns into time and vice versa. So looking forward 155 days, 155 weeks and 1,550 days will all be important. Its interesting to note that this most recent low came in at 156 weeks or just one week out in 3 years which was also the anniversary of the cycle low on November 22nd.

Conclusion

This isn’t a theory. It isn’t wishful thinking.

What I just laid out is the exact same confluence of Gann time cycles, price squares, anniversary dates, seasonal turns, and unbreakable market structure that has nailed every single major low this cycle without exception.

The market just did what it always does at real bottoms, it went maximally bearish, convinced almost everyone the party was over, and shook out every weak hand it could find.

The structure is still perfectly intact.
Key Gann price levels have held to the tick.
Time cycles have converged from 7 days all the way to 15 years.
Time/price squares have called the exact day and dollar.

This isn’t coincidence.

This is the market ringing the bell at the absolute low. Anyone still calling for a multi-month bear trap is about to get run over.

The four-year cycle crowd, the “higher highs/higher lows are broken” crowd, the perpetual perma-bears, they’re all standing on the wrong side of the market again.

We’ve seen this movie before. We know how it ends. The evidence is overwhelming and it’s sitting right in front of us this is the final major low.

It gives you a chance to look back on the week, month, year, or even decade and realize where you have been lacking, and more importantly, where you have been excelling.

Taking time to time to zoom out and put things into perspective is extremely valuable as we often get way to caught up on what has been happening in the near term of our lives and it clouds our judgement of just how much progress we may have made over the last year.

You can get pretty down in bad seasons of life if you don’t take time to reflect back on where you are today versus where you were a year ago or even five years ago.

That said, when it comes to this newsletter I always take time to review our year in the markets. Analyzing what we did well, where we missed opportunities, and how we could have done better.

This year was undoubtedly a tough year in the crypto market and a tough year trading all around.

However, when I zoom out I see a lot of silver linings in how we managed this year and I see a lot of opportunities for improvement in our system.

So let’s take a look back and review the year in reverse order from bad to good, so we can end on a positive note.

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